🔁Arya - آریا:
Many people ask themselves if Hassan Nasrallah would still be alive if 🇮🇷 would have hit 🇮🇱 after the assassination of Haniyeh
1: Israel is no joke. Its a nuclear power with advanced weapons
2: Iran is a ~90 million economy with fragile industrial infrastructure. The country which equips all the forces that fight Israel
3: Weapons like Air-Lora mean Israel can reach Iran and Iran can at best only provide point-protection of very important objects against such weapons
4: Israel is under existential threat if a full war breaks out.
It would certainly use its nuclear weapons if the situation becomes too critical
5: Israel used a covert sabotage asset to assassinate Haniyeh and took no responsibility.
In the 1. April attack against Iran's embassy compound in Damascus, Israel took no responsibility, but it could be proven that only Israels military could be responsible for it.
6: Iran's missile attack in April was disproportional in the sense that a key goal was to force Israel to spend a large amount of its expensive and rare 1st tier missile defense interceptors.
But the actual impact was proportional or even below that: Striking the military assets (or their support infrastructure) that were used to strike the embassy compound.
A capability display against a nuclear power with very fragile shallow strategic depth. Carefully calibrated to not escalate things further.
7: An aggressive nuclear power with strong military is best defeated via a prolonged war directly at its borders. Stressing its economy and wearing out the homefront.
With or without its old leadership, Hezbollah is designed to do exactly that.
➡️ Some people don't like the hear such things, but its a matter of life and death, not some computer game
https://x.com/AryJeay/stat... https://x.com/Pataramesh/s...
Many people ask themselves if Hassan Nasrallah would still be alive if 🇮🇷 would have hit 🇮🇱 after the assassination of Haniyeh
1: Israel is no joke. Its a nuclear power with advanced weapons
2: Iran is a ~90 million economy with fragile industrial infrastructure. The country which equips all the forces that fight Israel
3: Weapons like Air-Lora mean Israel can reach Iran and Iran can at best only provide point-protection of very important objects against such weapons
4: Israel is under existential threat if a full war breaks out.
It would certainly use its nuclear weapons if the situation becomes too critical
5: Israel used a covert sabotage asset to assassinate Haniyeh and took no responsibility.
In the 1. April attack against Iran's embassy compound in Damascus, Israel took no responsibility, but it could be proven that only Israels military could be responsible for it.
6: Iran's missile attack in April was disproportional in the sense that a key goal was to force Israel to spend a large amount of its expensive and rare 1st tier missile defense interceptors.
But the actual impact was proportional or even below that: Striking the military assets (or their support infrastructure) that were used to strike the embassy compound.
A capability display against a nuclear power with very fragile shallow strategic depth. Carefully calibrated to not escalate things further.
7: An aggressive nuclear power with strong military is best defeated via a prolonged war directly at its borders. Stressing its economy and wearing out the homefront.
With or without its old leadership, Hezbollah is designed to do exactly that.
➡️ Some people don't like the hear such things, but its a matter of life and death, not some computer game
https://x.com/AryJeay/stat... https://x.com/Pataramesh/s...
15 hours ago
